Merry Christmas and Seasons Greetings

Dion 54.7% Ignatieff 45.3%

Dion has got the Big MO

Third Ballot: Dion 37% Ignatieff 34.5% Rae 28.5%
















Three important things to consider:

• He [Ignatieff] can not challenge Harper in Quebec as he has the same position on Quebecois as a nation. My inclination is that Dion, once the leadership race is in the books, will come out in opposition of Harper's stance on nation. We need a candidate who contrast Harper's balkanized view of Quebec.
• Does not owe anything after the convention closes down as the two people supporting him are outside the HoC. In other words, his transition to Stornoway will be smoother than Ignatieffs, as Iggy would have to juggle critic portfolios to satisfy his supporters.
• And last, but surely not least, he can pickup thousands of votes from environmentally conscious Canadian from coast to coast to coast. He has a better record on the environment than Harper. That is a very valuable asset.

Dion! Dion! Dion!

The little campaign that could, now just became the strong campaign that will.

Date	Iggy	Rae	Dion	Ken
12/02/2006
Num. of delelgates	1481	1132	974	884
% of delegates	31.6	24.1	20.8	18.8

Update

I few observations:

• I think the turning point was after Dion's speech last night wherein he realized that he did poorly and therefore his back was up against the wall. Instead of folding his tent, he rolled up his sleeves and went to work. Moral of the story? Never doubt this man ever again.
• As a result of being put on the edge of defeat, he realized that he needed to secure support before the morning if he was ever going to get clearly into third and thus surpass Kennedy.
• Neither Rae nor Ignatieff have shown significant growth which shows what I always suspected of BOB Rae, that Liberals will never untrust their party to an outsider like him. He will not gain any significant support from Dryden, Kennedy or Ignatieff, especially since Iggy will undoubtably ignore the writing on the wall and sit tight for another ballot. Thus, helping Dion close the gap on him and Rae.
• One thing that I have to mention right now is a suggestion that my buddy Scott (aka The Sorry Centrist) said to me a few months ago, he said that both the Kennedy and the Dion camps sould come together and agree to make a few thousand "Kennedion" buttons for this very moment. Not to mention, he was the first one in cyber space to coin the phrase "Kennedion" and he isn't even a Liberal. Sign that guy up as a strategist.

No, they're not the Minnesota North Stars

I'm seeing a sea of green in the Ken Dryden section. And no, they're not the Minnesota North Stars.

Btw, Kennedion is a go on the next ballot. As I said before, I think the Bob Rae momentum could very well scare a few people toward Dion.

Liberals: Anybody But Rae

If Bob Rae gains the slightest bit of momentum on the second ballot, it will trigger a series of defections to Dion from not only Iggy's camp, but whoever is sitting in fourth.

Thus, Dryden will have a big decision on his hands. Will he continue the Dion serge or will he end it with an endorsement of Rae. I think we all know what a good Liberal will do. ;-)

Jason Cherniak said it best, "I was concerned that growth for Bob would make it look like momentum. Then I realized that momentum for Bob will scare Iggy supporters to Dion. This is going very well!"

The little campaign that could

The Hon. Don Boudria on Stephane Dion's campaign, "we are the only one of the top four that is growing, we are the little campaign that's growing and we won't stop 'til we win."

Martha to Dion?

If the rumours are true, Martha will be announcing shortly that she is throwing her support behind Stéphane. This is huge folks as her 130 delegates and ex-officios could be the start of a long but great day in the life of Mr. Dion.











My Status = Strange

I am one crazy bird. Been up all night watching the tube and at one point, while there was no coverage (a two hour break from CPAC reruns), I thought to myself that junkies like myself would actually watch a webcam of Andrew Coyne and Chantal Hebert talking in their sleep about the second and third ballot. I know, I need a life. Anyway, I'm sure many of you need a theme song that will pick you up after a long night of heavy politics and booze. So for all you stange [political] animals out there, like myself, who are preparing for another full round, get your MP3s and iPods ready because this ones for you.

Ignatieff loses ground, Dion gains momentum

This is fantastic news. Now the question is: who will the delegates go to on the second ballot from the bottom four, especially Dryden and Brison?

Date	Iggy	Rae	Dion	Ken
12/02/2006
Num. of delelgates	1412	977	856	854
% of delegates	29.3	20.3	17.8	17.7

As the BCer in Toronto puts it;

Stephane in third place, even if only by a scant four votes, wow! Yess!! Lots of happy Dion supporters here right now. Gerard's people had been spinning they'd be in third with a comfortable margin, this has to be very demoralizing for them tonight. Second ballot will tell the tale as this is far from over, but with these results, the Allan Rock endorsement and a great speech tonight, I am a very optimistic, enthusiastic and happy Dionista tonight!

Well said, and who said Martha Hall-Finley couldn't make a difference in this race. Her 130 delegates could decide who moves forward to ultimately challenge Ignatieff. Wow! This thing is just getting started!! See you @ 9:00 a.m.!!

Related

Dion the bright promise and the man to beat
Ignatieff's support shrinks to under 30 per cent

Alan Rock endorses Dion

[click photo for story, via Cherniak on politics]

McKenna what ifs?

As McKenna said to ATV news anchorman Steve Murphy a few weeks back after he asked him whether he would consider a future run at politics, "I was successful in escaping the trap and I don't plan on going back for the cheese."

I guess that still doesn't stop the what ifs from being discussed this weekend. lol

Latest Poll Numbers

The latest Ipsos-Reid poll shows exactly what everybody already knew in the Dion camp, in that, he would be the most difficult opponent for Harper in a general election. For the rest of the candidates, the gap in wide.

Dion Central

In the News

Stéphane Dion, gift to the Liberal party
Dion is only one to lead Liberals

Public Endorsements

The Montreal Gazette:

"Two months remain, and any day can bring surprises," the Gazette's editorial opined. "But on the basis of what Canadians have heard and seen so far, it is possible to reach a conclusion now, and here is ours: Stephane Dion is the best choice to lead the Liberal Party of Canada."

The Globe and Mail:

"arguably the most courageous Canadian politician of his generation."

"That he has been the most lucid on the crucial unity file is unsurprising," the Globe wrote, "but he has also presented a compelling vision of a 21st-century environmental economy."

"If a leader is going to exercise mastery over any files, those are among the most important."

Warren Kinsella:

"is the best guy for the job."

I see it too

A great post from The Tyee's Rafe Mair;

Why I see Dion Winning

What’s going to happen at the Liberal Convention, perhaps the last to be held under the current system?

No one knows because two things are unknown – how will the non-elected delegates vote and what are the delegates’ second choices?

Michael Ignatieff is the damned fool that brought the “Quebec is a nation” nonsense into the national debate causing a motion on the floor of the House of Commons that itself badly divided the Liberals. He is the leading candidate for all that and, we’re assured, is still the darling of the “insiders”. Stephen Harper would rejoice at his selection.Bob Rae has run a good campaign committing himself to absolutely nothing. Somehow he seems to have created general amnesia over his disastrous record as Premier of Ontario.

Read entire article

John Baird: Political Patronage 101

As a Maritimer, I am in full agreement with the decentralization of the public service in Ottawa. My friend Scott (aka The Sorry Centrist) has a great post on this very subject.

Dion gains momentum

The new Strategic Counsel poll is out and Dion is comfortably ahead as the Liberals second choice amongst the four contenders. This has to be real bad news for Ignatieff and Kennedy. (Hat tip Jason Cherniak)

First choice (DSM percentage in brackets):

Ignatieff: 31 per cent (29.3 per cent)
Rae: 19 per cent (20.1 per cent)
Dion: 18 per cent (16.1 per cent)
Kennedy: 17 per cent (17.5 per cent)

Second Choice:

Dion: 23 per cent (+10)
Gerard Kennedy: 13 per cent (+5)
Bob Rae: 10 per cent (-13)
Michael Ignatieff: 6 per cent (-6)

Added together:

Dion: 41%
Iggy: 37%
Kennedy: 30%
Rae: 29%

Letter from Akaash

From: "Akaash Maharaj" <Akaash@Maharaj.org>
To: "Liberal Membership" <liberals@maharaj.org>

Sent: Tuesday, November 28, 2006 4:21 AM

Subject: Choosing Canada's Future

Dear Colleagues,

I hope this note finds you well, and looking forward to the Liberal Party of Canada’s leadership convention in Montreal this week.

As you know, this is the first federal Liberal leadership election in more than a generation whose outcome is genuinely uncertain. As a result, whether we vote at the convention as direct attendees, guide our ridings’ delegates as grassroots Liberals, or shape the context of the election as informed Canadians, the choices we make this week will have a decisive impact on the future of Canada.

I am writing to let you know why I have chosen to support Stéphane Dion.

Throughout his decades of public service, Stéphane has consistently displayed political courage, loyalty to the national interest, and irreproachable personal integrity.

As author of the Clarity Act and as our party’s most unwavering proponent of the Kyoto Protocol, Stéphane has always displayed the courage of genuinely Liberal convictions. While others shrank from the debate, he lived the creed that government must stand prepared to do what is right not in spite of the difficulty, but precisely because of the difficulty.

During the arduous transition between the Chrétien and Martin leaderships, Stéphane was as steadfast a beacon for party unity as he has been for national unity. He understood that a principled political party must remain bound together through loyalty to a shared set of ideas and ideals, and must be more than just the vehicle for the ambitions of any one person.

Above all else, throughout his public and professional life, Stéphane has been recognised by friend and foe alike as a person of the highest ethical standing. For a party whose adversaries have so traduced us over scandals real and manufactured, we can only hope to re-earn the confidence of Canadians if we choose a leader whose entire record speaks to the nobility of public service.

Irrespective of the outcome of the leadership election, Stéphane will work towards an open and inclusive Liberal Party: one that will value the contributions of all leadership candidates and their teams, one that will draw Liberals together after the convention, and one that will present itself to Canadians as worthy and able to govern Canada.

Stéphane Dion is the Prime Minister Canada deserves and the leader the Liberal Party needs. I hope you will join me in making both a reality.

With best wishes,

Akaash

Semantic vs Symbolic

From The Gazette;

"This has all become ridiculous," Dion said, adding these "semantic debates" yield little.

"We need to master symbolic politics in Canada. It just leads to
disappointed expectations and pointless anxieties and I think Mr. Ignatieff is leading us to disappointed expectations by putting too much stock in this."

Globe endorses Dion

It was great to see the that the Globe and Mail endorsed Mr. Dion yesterday. Not to mention, I see we will have Justin Trudeau's support by the third ballot when Kennedy drops off.

He had suggested that he was wavering between Mr. Kennedy and former Liberal cabinet minister Stéphane Dion. He attended an event in Montreal last Tuesday at which Mr. Kennedy spoke about renewing the party.